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Poleward bound

9. Poleward bound

Adapting to climate driven species redistribution

Summary

One of the most pronounced effects of climate change on the world’s oceans is the (generally) poleward movement of species and fishery stocks in response to increasing water temperatures. In some regions, such redistributions are already causing dramatic shifts in marine socioecological systems, profoundly altering ecosystem structure and function, challenging domestic and international fisheries, and impacting on human communities. Such effects are expected to become increasingly widespread as waters continue to warm and species ranges continue to shift. Actions taken over the coming decade (2021–2030) can help us adapt to species redistributions and minimise negative impacts on ecosystems and human communities, achieving a more sustainable future in the face of ecosystem change. We describe key drivers related to climate-driven species redistributions that are likely to have a high impact and influence on whether a sustainable future is achievable by 2030. We posit two different futures—a ‘business as usual’ future and a technically achievable and more sustainable future, aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. We then identify concrete actions that provide a pathway towards the more sustainable 2030 and that acknowledge and include Indigenous perspectives. Achieving this sustainable future will depend on improved monitoring and detection, and on adaptive, cooperative management to proactively respond to the challenge of species redistribution. We synthesise examples of such actions as the basis of a strategic approach to tackle this global-scale challenge for the benefit of humanity and ecosystems.

Infographic

Lead Investigators

Jessica-Melbourne-Thomas

Jess Melbourne-Thomas

CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere / CMS

Anchor

Gretta Pecl

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies / CMS

Co-Authors

Meet our fellow team members who contribute to the success of this project.

Ingrid van Putten

CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere / CMS
RTrebilco

Rowan Trebilco

CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere / Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies / CMS
Alistair Hobday

Alistair Hobday

CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere / CMS

Heather Hunt

University of New Brunswick

Hannah Fogarty

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies / CMS
Marcus Haward

Marcus Haward

Scott Ling

Phillipa McCormack

Faculty of Law, University of Tasmania / CMS

Michael Oellermann

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies

Asta Audzijonyte

Madeleine Brasier

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Katie Creswell

Katie Cresswell

Cecilia_Villanueva

Cecilia Villanueva

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies / CMS

Reg Watson

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Kaisu Mustonen

Kaisu Mustonen

Snow Change Cooperative, Finland.
tero_mustonen

Tero Mustonen

Snow Change Cooperative, Finland.
Janet Nye

Janet Nye

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FUTURE SEAS is a unique collaboration , spear-headed by the Centre for Marine Socioecology, of over 100 researchers from the University of Tasmania (UTAS), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and other institutions
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